Bear Market 2010 Warning


Inquiring minds are reading MarketWatch.com’s Paul Farrell article “Warning, bear market 2010” and wondering just how much worse. One doesn’t have to read past the sub-title:

“New Normal: Bankrupt nation. Deflation. Zeros. Junk. No jobs. Depression”

So with the plesantries out of the way, Farrell decides on a role call:

Yes, it’s going to get worse, a whole lot worse … Bill Gross warns this is the “New Normal. Forget 10% returns. Think 5%”. … Economist Larry Kotlikoff, author of The Coming Generational Storm, warns: “Let’s get real. The U.S. is bankrupt. Neither spending nor taxing will help the country pay its bills” … Economist Peter Morici warns: “Unemployment is stuck near 10%. Deflation coming. Stock market threatens collapse. The Federal Reserve and Barack Obama are out of bullets. Near zero federal funds rates, central bank purchases, a $1.6 trillion deficit have failed to revive the economy.” … Simon Johnson, co-author of 13 Bankers, warns: “We came close to another Great Depression, next time we may not be so lucky.” Why? Because Wall Street’s already well into the next bubble/bust cycle — the “doom cycle.”

Warning: More bad news ahead. Welcome to a bleak second half 2010, worse for 2011.

It’s early morning: In comes economist Gary Shilling’s new Insight newsletter, just before I head for the kitchen to make my wife’s breakfast. Gary’s “Mid-Course Checkup” doesn’t raise my spirits. Sure, he’s got bragging rights. His January forecasts are still on the money. But don’t you just hate guys like him? Brilliant. Honest. Great track record. I guess that’s why he’s been a long-time Forbes columnist. Investors listen when he talks.

You really do need to read the entire article. Just make sure you are sitting down, there are no sharp objects within arms reach, and you DO NOT have a heart condition.

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