OC Real Estate: Three Straight Months of Decline


Inquiring minds are looking upon Orange County, California, where persisent egos keep getting surprised that housing is overvalued and headed lower. More evidence that Orange County home values are on the decline yet again as it become apparent this year’s price rally faded just as soon as the Feds pulled the Tax-Credit subsidy away:

It was the second month[actually CoreLogic data shows this is the THIRD consecutive month of declines – CS Editor] of year-over-year declines following eight consecutive increases. Before that upswing, the CoreLogic index for Orange County had fallen 37 straight months on a year-over-year basis. (See chart above!)

The CoreLogic index is based on tracking gains or losses on individual homes sold recently — including distressed sales. (Another CoreLogic compilation, done with the Real Estate Research Council of Southern California, estimates the value of all homes in the county. It shows a 3.15 annual gain in the third quarter.)

Previously, the only major index we track that had shown a year-over-year decline was the California Realtors gauge — down 4.4 percent annual for October — that is based on sales of old single-family homes in the brokers’ MLS tracking system.

To see the actual CoreLogic data click here.

The actual article in the OCRegister is worth a quick look. The table used to present the data is well done.

For those who still aren’t convinced, our good friend Dr Housing Bubble recently compiled a report on the state of OC real estate. It doesn’t look good:

Orange County still carries the most expensive price tag in Southern California housing. Yet simply having a high price tag doesn’t mean prices are justified. Recent data shows that home sales in Orange County are now down over 10 percent on a year over year basis and the median price has collapsed from its peak. I wanted to dig deep into the county data to see whether a housing bubble is still present in Orange County. Using a variety of metrics including income, employment, and housing costs Orange County is still one of the most inflated areas in the country. We have shown million dollar homes taking million dollar price cuts. The correction no doubt is in full swing. Yet Orange County is a large area and we can only understand it better by looking at each data point and compiling it all together into a holistic overview. Let us examine 5 charts showing that Orange County overall has one of the most inflated real estate markets in the United States.

Please, as always, check out the good Doctor’s entire post. His five charts are very informative.

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