Double Dip? Looks Like It

Inquiring minds are reading the OCRegister where, guess what?…A real estate double dip looks to be forming:

Prices often rise during peak buying season in the spring and this year was no exception, thanks in part to some tax incentives to buyers. Yet it’s obvious looking at numerous reports that prices have fallen since this year’s traditional sales rush as the tax breaks faded away.
Still, on our preferred year-over-year basis, it’s been hard to confirm the negative price swing. But recently we found that a price index from CoreLogic showed Orange County home values falling at a 2.56 percent year-over-year rate in October. CoreLogic is the old data-collecting unit of title-insurance giant First American.
October marked the second straight month of year-over-year declines in this local CoreLogic index following eight consecutive increases. Before that upswing, the CoreLogic index for Orange County had fallen 37 straight months on a year-over-year basis.

And it is a wildfire that started in the Inland Empire and has been buring towards the coastal areas:

Nobody can debate that Orange County homebuying is sluggish, with November sales off 11 percent from a year ago. Geographically, it’s a broad-based slump:
Weakness was most profound to the north and inland. In Orange County’s north-inland ZIP codes, 530 homes sold in the month, down 17 percent from a year ago. Mid-county ZIPs had 598 sales, down 24 percent from a year ago.

That is why ‘the wealthy’ are, or…should be getting nervous. It is the second punch that always seems to knock the boxer out. The scary thing is that the infamous ‘two-humped camel’ scenario was actually based on a static housing market. This decline is a secular decline. It is independent of the Alt-A ‘second hump’.

That 17.5% of homes in California being foreclosed on is getting closer to a reality.


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