Mortgage Originations to Drop 36%?


Inquiring minds are watching the mortgage market. Since it is very difficult to see how interest rates can drop any further and home sales are flat-lining, we all might see what the statistical minimum for mortgage originations actually is:

Mortgage originations are expected to fall nearly 36% this year as the housing slump and high unemployment take their toll on consumer confidence.

The Mortgage Bankers Association released its forecast this morning indicating that $966 billion in mortgages would be originated this year, down from $1.5 trillion in 2010.

“The main issue at the moment is jobs,” said Jay Brinkman, chief economist for the association. “Not only that but people coming out of the recession even if they have a job, what is their credit situation?”

69% of mortgage activity last year was refinancing compared to new mortgage purchases.

To show just how few mortgages this will be is to consider that mortgage originations fell 24.5% in 2010 from 2009 levels. In real numbers there were $1.995 trillion in mortgage originations in 2009 compared to $1.505 trillion last year.

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